Finance
Cash flow forecast for a small business: the 13-week version
Most owners find out about a tight week when a payment bounces. A 13-week forecast moves that discovery forward by two months, which is the difference between a phone call and a crisis.
What goes in
Opening bank balance
Today's real number, not the accounting balance.
Invoiced and unpaid
Each invoice with the week you actually expect it to land, not its due date.
Work booked but not invoiced
Jobs in the diary, with the week you will bill them.
Fixed outgoings
Wages, rent, vehicles, insurance, subscriptions, loan payments.
Variable outgoings
Materials, subcontractors and fuel, tied to the jobs above.
Lumps
Tax, annual insurance, equipment. These are what cause the surprise weeks.
Four warning signs in the numbers
- — Two consecutive weeks where the closing balance falls, with no lump to explain it.
- — Any week that closes below one week of fixed costs — that is your real floor.
- — More than 30% of the incoming column sitting in invoices already past terms.
- — A tax or insurance lump landing in the same week as payroll.
What to do about a tight week
- — Chase the three largest overdue invoices this week, with a proper escalating sequence.
- — Move one discretionary outgoing out of the tight week — supplier order, subscription renewal, equipment.
- — Ask for a deposit on the next booked job. On a service business, 30% up front changes the whole quarter.
- — Bring one invoice forward: bill on completion of a stage rather than at the end of the job.
Common questions
Why 13 weeks?
It is one quarter — far enough ahead to change something, close enough that your figures are still real. Twelve-month forecasts are guesses; weekly views for the next quarter are decisions.
How often should I update it?
Weekly, in about ten minutes: roll the week off the front, update what actually landed, add the new bookings. A forecast built once and never touched is worse than none.
Do I need an accountant to build one?
No. A bookkeeper records what happened; a forecast is about what is coming. If you know your bank balance, your unpaid invoices and your fixed costs, you have everything needed.
What does CEO Engine produce?
A written 13-week forecast from your own figures, with the shortfall weeks flagged and specific actions attached to each one — plus the collections sequences to pull the cash in earlier.
Build your first 13 weeks
Three free days, card required, nothing charged before day four. Bring your last three months of billing and outgoings.
Related reading: chasing unpaid invoices, AI business solutions, what CEO AI Engine is.